Braves Win Big By Adding Justin Upton - Gary Armida's Blog

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Braves Win Big By Adding Justin Upton Stuck

Posted on January 24, 2013 at 02:08 PM.

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After years of speculation and one blocked trade, Justin Upton is no longer a member of the Arizona Diamondbacks. The 25 year old outfielder was traded along with third baseman Chris Johnson to the Atlanta Braves for third baseman/outfielder Martin Prado, 23 year old starting pitcher Randall Delgado, and three prospects: shortstop Nick Ahmed, pitcher Zeke Spruill, and first baseman Brandon Drury. With the addition of Upton, the Atlanta Braves will now field one of the best young, athletic outfields in Major League Baseball as he joins older brother BJ Upton and 22 year old Jason Heyward. For the Braves, the trade not only improves them for this season, but it gives them one of the game�s most exciting offensive players for the next three years at a team friendly price. For the Diamondbacks, the benefits are far murkier.

While the Braves do give up Martin Prado, a quality, versatile hitter, they add a potential superstar who isn�t even in his prime. In six seasons, Upton has compiled a .278/.357/.475 line with an average season of 28 doubles, 5 triples, 21 home runs, 70 RBI, and 16 stolen bases. Until last season, Upton had been steadily improving each season. Over the past two seasons, he has rid himself of the injury prone label as well. His breakout season looked like it was 2011 when he hit .289/.369/.529, but last season saw him step back as he hit just .280/.355/.430.

He got off to a slow start during the first two months of the 2012 season. He finished the first half of the season at .273/.353/.401 with just 7 home runs. But, it wasn�t even just the down production. He seemingly fell out of favor with his organization. There were more stories of a lack of hustle, missing fly balls, and just a general apathy about the game.

In Upton�s defense, these stories are almost always a product of a poor season. Almost every player can have a highlight reel made of them jogging to first base on a given play or having a defensive lapse. Over 162 games, it is likely to happen. We don�t like to admit that, but the idea of all-out hustle 100 percent of the time is mostly a myth.

Last season, the Diamondbacks were disappointing and Upton had moments where he didn�t run things out. His defense suffered too. Normally a plus defender, Upton�s defensive metrics all represented a career worst. His minus-2.3 UZR and +2 DRS are the worst totals of his Major League career. He did manage to put together a solid second half as he hit .287/.357/.460 with 10 home runs. But, his overall season was quite disappointing. He lost 14 points off of his on base percentage from 2011. He lost almost 100 points off of his slugging percentage and 45 points off of his wOBA. His BABIP was largely the same, taking bad luck out of the equation.

But, there is no mistaking Upton�s potential. He�s just 25 years old and he didn�t show any significant regression with his walk or strikeout rates. Perhaps, it was just time for the Diamondbacks and Upton to move on. Maybe after failing to become a superstar right away, the Diamondbacks have had enough. Maybe after hearing his name in trade rumors every season, even after the best season of his career, it was time for Upton to move on.

His addition means quite a bit to the Braves. Along with Heyward, he gives the Braves a high ceiling bat who should continue to improve as he hits his prime. He gives the Braves a right handed power bat to pair with Heyward, making matchups difficult. The Braves do lose Prado from the lineup and are replacing Chipper Jones� production as well. Upton�s poor 2012 season actually matched Prado�s and Jones� production. Given his age and his ceiling, the Braves are better over the long term because of Upton, but they are likely better in 2013 too. A modest projection for Upton could be in the neighborhood of .285/.370/.490 with 30 doubles and 25 to 30 home runs. That modest projection would have led the 2012 Braves in each category. With the BJ Upton capable of 20 home runs and Justin Upton along with Heyward still maturing, the Braves could have an elite offensive outfield.

The trade also brings in Chris Johnson, who has essentially been a replacement level third baseman in his four year career. But, Johnson will be paired with left handed hitting Juan Francisco at third base, which could yield league average production. Francisco has a career .806 OPS against right handed pitching. While Johnson�s career splits favor right handed pitching, he has never been placed in a platoon role. A limited role could boost his production and keep Francisco on the bench against southpaws. At minimum, the pair can provide home run power at the bottom of the order. While third base will be the Braves� worst offensive position, the upgrades to their outfield far outweigh that potential weakness.

In short, the 2013 Braves are better with the Upton brothers, an improving Heyward, and their third base platoon than they were last season with Prado, Bourne, and Jones.

For 2013, the Diamondbacks don�t really take much of a step back because they do get Prado in return. Prado will play third base as General Manager Kevin Towers has built up some outfield inventory. Since becoming a full-time starter in 2009, Prado has posted an average season of .294/.342/.436 with 36 doubles, 12 home runs, and 60 RBI. He was a 5.9 WAR player last season, but that has quite a bit to do with his defense in left field, which rated career bests by all defensive metrics. With the move back to third base, Prado likely fits into the 3 to 4 WAR player. For 2013, that technically replaces Upton well, but after that it becomes more complicated.

Prado is entering his age 29 season and will be a free agent at the end of the season. With a 2013 salary likely between $6.5 to $7 million and then a new deal being needed, the salary difference between Prado and Upton isn�t much in the short term. Considering Upton�s much higher ceiling and that he�s under contract through 2015 ($38.5 million left), there is really no financial advantage.

With Prado at third base, the Diamondbacks will choose an outfield from the following: Jason Kubel, Cody Ross, Gerardo Parra, and super prospect Adam Eaton. The only way the Diamondbacks are discernibly better this season is if Prado puts together another season in line with his career and Eaton becomes a sensation. Anything less and the Diamondbacks are worse offensively, at least for this year.

This deal, however, isn�t just about 2013. Randall Delgado is a 23 year old right hander who does project to be, at best, a middle of the rotation starter. He made 17 starts for the Braves in 2012, posting a 4.37 ERA, a 4.07 FIP, 19 % strikeout rate, and a 10% walk rate in 94.2 innings. A top 50 prospect before the 2012 season, Delgado is still developing. His command still needs work and his breaking pitches are still very inconsistent. He throws in the low 90�s and has shown the ability to strike out hitters. But, if his command doesn�t improve, he won�t even be that mid rotation starter.

The rest of the package includes 23 year old right handed pitcher Zeke Spruill. Spruill has been in the Braves system since he was 18 years old and he did have a solid 2012 season at the double-A level, which helped him regain some value. A ground ball specialist who lacks the ability to strike out hitters, he is another pitcher who projects to be a third or fourth starter if everything breaks his way. 23 year old shortstop Nick Ahmed hasn�t played above A-Ball, but is one of those prospects whose frame makes scouts believe he can eventually hit for power. Last season, he hit .269/.337/.391 in 591 plate appearances while adding 36 doubles, 4 triples, 6 home runs, and 40 stolen bases. He did strikeout 102 times against just 40 walks. An average defender, Ahmed doesn�t currently project as a regular, but that could change as he matures. Brandon Drury is a 20 year old corner infielder who played at single-A last season. Like Ahmed, there is a hope that power will come, but he doesn�t profile as a regular either.

The package received is definitely underwhelming. The rumored blocked deal with the Mariners would have added much more high ceiling talent. But, the Diamondbacks were limited in that regard because of Upton�s no-trade clause. The biggest criticism of this deal is that they traded a 25 year old power hitting outfielder who is still maturing for a group of players that doesn�t have one player who is projected to be elite. The Diamondbacks traded their best player and didn�t get the Braves best prospect in return. They undersold and there isn�t a way to spin that otherwise.

For the Braves, they now have two, young corner outfielders who are still trending upward. They didn�t overpay, they still have their best prospects, and they didn�t lose much from their Major League roster. It is a deal that improves them in 2013, but greatly improves them over the next three seasons. It is the kind of deal that makes them legitimate contenders in 2013 and a strong organization moving forward.

Sound off OS: Does the addition of Justin Upton make the Braves a real threat to win the National League pennant?

Gary Armida is a staff writer for Operation Sports. He also writes more baseball at FullCountPitch.com. Join the conversation on twitter @garyarmida.

Comments

# 1 Jakeness23 @ Jan 24

Yes sir it makes them a threat! Good pitching staff, great bullpen, and a loaded, young offense ready to take off and dominate for years to come!

# 2 asu666 @ Jan 24

I'm a Dback fan and I'm not happy with the deal. Chris Johnson was okay and J Up was a star in the making. I do believe in Kevin Towers' ability to make decent deals though, so I'll reserve final judgement until some time passes.

# 3 HighCmpPct @ Jan 25

I just hope the Braves don't treat these new acquisitions like they did all there other big-name deals. (e.g. Sheffield,Drew,etc..)

# 4 Gary Armida @ Jan 25

@HighCmpPct How do you mean?

# 5 HighCmpPct @ Jan 27

I mean the Braves have a bad history of grabbing good big name players, then the next year or have way through the same year they're just gone. I mean being from here in GA I can't tell you how many times they would make a move that would just excite every body, then just months later they player that brought all the excitement is just gone just gone.